| Abstract: | Historically, forecast error for returns of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka to Bristol Bay, Alaska, has been large. Using cross-validation forecast error as our criterion, we selected forecast models for each of the nine principal Bristol Bay drainages. Competing forecast models included stock-recruitment relationships, environmental variables, prior returns of siblings, or combinations of these predictors. For most stocks, we found prior returns of siblings to be the best single predictor of returns; however, forecast accuracy was low even when multiple predictors were considered. For a typical drainage, an 80% confidence interval ranged from one half to double the point forecast. These confidence intervals appeared to be appropriately wide. |
| Genre: | Article |
| ProdID: | 1013193 |
| Citation Author: | Adkison, M. D.; Peterson, R. M. |
| Citation Contributing Office: | Alaska Biological Science Center |
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| Citation End Page: | 80 |
| Citation Issue: | 1 |
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| Citation Language: | English |
| Citation Larger Work Title: | North American Journal of Fisheries Management |
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| Citation Number Of Pages: | 12 |
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| Citation Publisher: | Taylor and Francis |
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| Citation Search Results Text: | Predictability of Bristol Bay, Alaska, sockeye salmon returns one to four years in the future; 2000; Article; Journal; North American Journal of Fisheries Management; Adkison, M. D.; Peterson, R. M. |
| Citation Start Page: | 69 |
| Citation Volume: | 20 |
| Citation Year: | 2000 |
| Type: | citation/reference |
| Text: | Predictability of Bristol Bay, Alaska, sockeye salmon returns one to four years in the future; 2000; Article; Journal; North American Journal of Fisheries Management; Adkison, M. D.; Peterson, R. M. |
| URL (THUMBNAIL): | http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg |
| URL (DIGITAL OBJECT IDENTIFIER): | http://dx.doi.org/10.1577/1548-8675(2000)020<0069:POBBAS>2.0.CO;2 |
| Date Other: | Sat, 1 Jan 2000 00:00 -0600 |
| Publisher: | Taylor and Francis |
