Predictability of Bristol Bay, Alaska, sockeye salmon returns one to four years in the future
North American Journal of Fisheries Management
By: Milo D. Adkison and R.M. Peterson
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Abstract
Historically, forecast error for returns of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka to Bristol Bay, Alaska, has been large. Using cross-validation forecast error as our criterion, we selected forecast models for each of the nine principal Bristol Bay drainages. Competing forecast models included stock-recruitment relationships, environmental variables, prior returns of siblings, or combinations of these predictors. For most stocks, we found prior returns of siblings to be the best single predictor of returns; however, forecast accuracy was low even when multiple predictors were considered. For a typical drainage, an 80% confidence interval ranged from one half to double the point forecast. These confidence intervals appeared to be appropriately wide.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Predictability of Bristol Bay, Alaska, sockeye salmon returns one to four years in the future |
| Series title | North American Journal of Fisheries Management |
| DOI | 10.1577/1548-8675(2000)020<0069:POBBAS>2.0.CO;2 |
| Volume | 20 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Year Published | 2000 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Taylor and Francis |
| Contributing office(s) | Alaska Biological Science Center |
| Description | 12 p. |
| First page | 69 |
| Last page | 80 |
| Country | United States |
| State | Alaska |
| Other Geospatial | Bristol Bay |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |