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Modelling postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in species with delayed maturity: a case study of Roseate Terns at Falkner Island, Connecticut

Journal of Applied Statistics

EURING 2000 Conference, Point Reyes, California, October 1-7. PDF on file: 5827_Spendelow.pdf
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Abstract

We modeled postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in endangered Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) at Falkner Island, Connecticut, USA using capture-recapture data from 1988-1998 of birds ringed as chicks and as adults. While no individuals bred as 2-yr-olds during this period, about three-quarters of the young that survived and returned as 3-yr-olds nested, and virtually all surviving birds had begun breeding by the time they reached 5 years of age. We found no evidence of temporal variation in age of first breeding of birds from different cohorts. There was significant temporal variation in the annual survival of adults and the survival over the typical 3-yr maturation period of prebreeding birds, with extremely low values for both groups from the 1991 breeding season. The estimated overwinter survival rate (0.62) for adults from 1991-1992 was about three-quarters the usual rate of about 0.83, but the low survival of fledglings from 1991 resulted in less than 25% of the otherwise expected number of young from that cohort returning as breeding birds; this suggests that fledglings suffered a greater proportional decrease in survival than did adults. The survival estimates of young from 1989 and 1990 show that these cohorts were not negatively influenced by the events that decimated the young from 1991, and the young from 1992 and 1993 had above-average survival estimates. The apparent decrease since 1996 in development of fidelity of new recruits to this site is suspected due mainly to nocturnal disturbance and predation of chicks causing low productivity.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Modelling postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in species with delayed maturity: a case study of Roseate Terns at Falkner Island, Connecticut
Series title:
Journal of Applied Statistics
Volume
29
Issue:
1-4
Year Published:
2002
Language:
English
Publisher:
Routledge
Contributing office(s):
Patuxent Wildlife Research Center
Description:
669
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
Journal of Applied Statistics
First page:
385
Last page:
405
Number of Pages:
669