| Abstract: | Summary of bird survey information is a critical component of conservation activities, but often our summaries rely on statistical methods that do not accommodate the limitations of the information. Prioritization of species requires ranking and analysis of species by magnitude of population trend, but often magnitude of trend is a misleading measure of actual decline when trend is poorly estimated. Aggregation of population information among regions is also complicated by varying quality of estimates among regions. Hierarchical models provide a reasonable means of accommodating concerns about aggregation and ranking of quantities of varying precision. In these models the need to consider multiple scales is accommodated by placing distributional assumptions on collections of parameters. For collections of species trends, this allows probability statements to be made about the collections of species-specific parameters, rather than about the estimates. We define and illustrate hierarchical models for two commonly encountered situations in bird conservation: (1) Estimating attributes of collections of species estimates, including ranking of trends, estimating number of species with increasing populations, and assessing population stability with regard to predefined trend magnitudes; and (2) estimation of regional population change, aggregating information from bird surveys over strata. User-friendly computer software makes hierarchical models readily accessible to scientists. |
| Genre: | Book chapter |
| ProdID: | 5211315 |
| Citation Author: | Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Royle, J.A. |
| Citation Contributing Office: | Patuxent Wildlife Research Center |
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| Citation Editor: | Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D. (editors) |
| Citation End Page: | 770 |
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| Citation Language: | English |
| Citation Larger Work Title: | Bird Conservation Implementation and Integration in the Americas: Proceedings of the Third International Partners in Flight Conference 2002 |
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| Citation Phsyical Description: | 2 volumes: xiv, 1296 |
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| Citation Public Comments: | Conference held March 20-24, 2002, Asilomar, California PDF on file: 6516_Sauer.pdf |
| Citation Publisher: | U. S. Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station |
| Citation Series: | General Technical Report |
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| Citation Search Results Text: | Hierarchical models and Bayesian analysis of bird survey information; 2005; Book chapter; Bird Conservation Implementation and Integration in the Americas: Proceedings of the Third International Partners in Flight Conference 2002; Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Royle, J.A. |
| Citation Start Page: | 762 |
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| Citation Year: | 2005 |
| Type: | citation/reference |
| Text: | Hierarchical models and Bayesian analysis of bird survey information; 2005; Book chapter; Bird Conservation Implementation and Integration in the Americas: Proceedings of the Third International Partners in Flight Conference 2002; Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Royle, J.A. |
| URL (THUMBNAIL): | http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg |
| URL (INDEX PAGE): | http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/32064 |
| Date Other: | Tue, 9 Jun 2009 09:23 -0500 |
| Publisher: | U. S. Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station |
