thumbnail

Computer simulation models as tools for identifying research needs: A black duck population model

Transactions of the Northeast Section of the Wildlife Society, Annual Fish and Wildlife Conference

By:
,

Links

  • The Publications Warehouse does not have links to digital versions of this publication at this time

Abstract

Existing data on the mortality and production rates of the black duck (Anas rubripes) were used to construct a WATFIV computer simulation model. The yearly cycle was divided into 8 phases: hunting, wintering, reproductive, molt, post-molt, and juvenile dispersal mortality, and production from original and renesting attempts. The program computes population changes for sex and age classes during each phase. After completion of a standard simulation run with all variable default values in effect, a sensitivity analysis was conducted by changing each of 50 input variables, 1 at a time, to assess the responsiveness of the model to changes in each variable. Thirteen variables resulted in a substantial change in population level. Adult mortality factors were important during hunting and wintering phases. All production and mortality associated with original nesting attempts were sensitive, as was juvenile dispersal mortality. By identifying those factors which invoke the greatest population change, and providing an indication of the accuracy required in estimating these factors, the model helps to identify those variables which would be most profitable topics for future research.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Computer simulation models as tools for identifying research needs: A black duck population model
Series title:
Transactions of the Northeast Section of the Wildlife Society, Annual Fish and Wildlife Conference
Volume
37
Year Published:
1980
Language:
English
Contributing office(s):
Patuxent Wildlife Research Center
Description:
182-193
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
First page:
182
Last page:
193
Number of Pages:
12