thumbnail

Estimating transition probabilities in unmarked populations --entropy revisited

Bird Study

Large-scale Studies of Marked Birds, Proceedings of EURING 97 Conference, April 7-12, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. Edited by S. R. Baillie and P. M. North
By:
and

Links

  • The Publications Warehouse does not have links to digital versions of this publication at this time
  • Download citation as: RIS

Abstract

The probability of surviving and moving between 'states' is of great interest to biologists. Robust estimation of these transitions using multiple observations of individually identifiable marked individuals has received considerable attention in recent years. However, in some situations, individuals are not identifiable (or have a very low recapture rate), although all individuals in a sample can be assigned to a particular state (e.g. breeding or non-breeding) without error. In such cases, only aggregate data (number of individuals in a given state at each occasion) are available. If the underlying matrix of transition probabilities does not vary through time and aggregate data are available for several time periods, then it is possible to estimate these parameters using least-squares methods. Even when such data are available, this assumption of stationarity will usually be deemed overly restrictive and, frequently, data will only be available for two time periods. In these cases, the problem reduces to estimating the most likely matrix (or matrices) leading to the observed frequency distribution of individuals in each state. An entropy maximization approach has been previously suggested. In this paper, we show that the entropy approach rests on a particular limiting assumption, and does not provide estimates of latent population parameters (the transition probabilities), but rather predictions of realized rates.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Estimating transition probabilities in unmarked populations --entropy revisited
Series title:
Bird Study
Volume
46
Issue:
suppl.
Year Published:
1999
Language:
English
Contributing office(s):
Patuxent Wildlife Research Center
Description:
S55-61
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
Bird Study
First page:
S55
Last page:
61
Number of Pages:
62