Combining band recovery data and Pollock's robust design to model temporary and permanent emigration

Biometrics
By: , and 

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Abstract

Capture-recapture models are widely used to estimate demographic parameters of marked populations. Recently, this statistical theory has been extended to modeling dispersal of open populations. Multistate models can be used to estimate movement probabilities among subdivided populations if multiple sites are sampled. Frequently, however, sampling is limited to a single site, Models described by Burnham (1993, in Marked Individuals in the Study of Bird Populations, 199–213), which combined open population capture-recapture and band-recovery models, can be used to estimate permanent emigration when sampling is limited to a single population. Similarly, Kendall, Nichols, and Hines (1997, Ecology51, 563–578) developed models to estimate temporary emigration under Pollock's (1982, Journal of Wildlife Management46, 757–760) robust design. We describe a likelihood-based approach to simultaneously estimate temporary and permanent emigration when sampling is limited to a single population. We use a sampling design that combines the robust design and recoveries of individuals obtained immediately following each sampling period. We present a general form for our model where temporary emigration is a first-order Markov process, and we discuss more restrictive models. We illustrate these models with analysis of data on marked Canvasback ducks. Our analysis indicates that probability of permanent emigration for adult female Canvasbacks was 0.193 ( inline image) and that birds that were present at the study area in year i— 1 had a higher probability of presence in year i than birds that were not present in year i— 1.

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Combining band recovery data and Pollock's robust design to model temporary and permanent emigration
Series title Biometrics
DOI 10.1111/j.0006-341X.2001.00273.x
Volume 57
Issue 1
Year Published 2001
Language English
Publisher Wiley
Contributing office(s) Patuxent Wildlife Research Center
Description 9 p.
First page 273
Last page 281
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