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Detecting warning signs of trouble within population fluctuations: using capture-recapture modeling to uncover changes in population dynamics leading to declines

Annual Meeting of the Association of Field Ornithologists and the Wilson Ornithological Society Program and Abstracts

Meeting held April 22-24, 2004 at the Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology, Ithaca, NY
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Abstract

An intensive mark-recapture/resighting program has been carried out on the Roseate Terns nesting at Falkner Island, Connecticut, since the late 1980s as part of a regional study of the metapopulation dynamics and ecology of the endangered Northwest Atlantic breeding population of this species. Substantial losses of tern eggs and chicks to predation at this colony site began in 1996 when at least five Black-crowned Night-Herons started nocturnal raids. This depredation has been a major factor in the reduction of productivity from an average of about 1.0 chicks/pair for the 10 years before night-heron predation began to as low as about 0.2 chicks/pair in 2002. Recent capture-recapture modelling analyses have detected other important impacts on the population dynamics of the Roseate Terns at this site including a reduction by about half in the 'development-of-residency' rates of first-time breeders, and a substantial decline in the local 'survival-and-fidelity' rates of experienced breeders believed due mostly to increased immigration rates to other colony sites.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Detecting warning signs of trouble within population fluctuations: using capture-recapture modeling to uncover changes in population dynamics leading to declines
Series title:
Annual Meeting of the Association of Field Ornithologists and the Wilson Ornithological Society Program and Abstracts
Year Published:
2004
Language:
English
Contributing office(s):
Patuxent Wildlife Research Center
Description:
P42
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
Annual Meeting of the Association of Field Ornithologists and the Wilson Ornithological Society Program and Abstracts
First page:
P42