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Simultaneous modeling of habitat suitability, occupancy, and relative abundance: African elephants in Zimbabwe

Ecological Applications

By:
, , , , , , , and
DOI: 10.1890/09-0276.1

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Abstract

The recent development of statistical models such as dynamic site occupancy models provides the opportunity to address fairly complex management and conservation problems with relatively simple models. However, surprisingly few empirical studies have simultaneously modeled habitat suitability and occupancy status of organisms over large landscapes for management purposes. Joint modeling of these components is particularly important in the context of management of wild populations, as it provides a more coherent framework to investigate the population dynamics of organisms in space and time for the application of management decision tools. We applied such an approach to the study of water hole use by African elephants in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe. Here we show how such methodology may be implemented and derive estimates of annual transition probabilities among three dry-season states for water holes: (1) unsuitable state (dry water holes with no elephants); (2) suitable state (water hole with water) with low abundance of elephants; and (3) suitable state with high abundance of elephants. We found that annual rainfall and the number of neighboring water holes influenced the transition probabilities among these three states. Because of an increase in elephant densities in the park during the study period, we also found that transition probabilities from low abundance to high abundance states increased over time. The application of the joint habitat–occupancy models provides a coherent framework to examine how habitat suitability and factors that affect habitat suitability influence the distribution and abundance of organisms. We discuss how these simple models can further be used to apply structured decision-making tools in order to derive decisions that are optimal relative to specified management objectives. The modeling framework presented in this paper should be applicable to a wide range of existing data sets and should help to address important ecological, conservation, and management problems that deal with occupancy, relative abundance, and habitat suitability.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Simultaneous modeling of habitat suitability, occupancy, and relative abundance: African elephants in Zimbabwe
Series title:
Ecological Applications
DOI:
10.1890/09-0276.1
Volume
20
Issue:
4
Year Published:
2010
Language:
English
Publisher:
Ecological Society of America
Publisher location:
Ithaca, NY
Contributing office(s):
Patuxent Wildlife Research Center
Description:
9 p.
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
Ecological Applications
First page:
1173
Last page:
1182
Number of Pages:
10
Country:
Zimbabwe
Other Geospatial:
Hwange National Park