thumbnail

Spatial dynamics of bar-headed geese migration in the context of H5N1

Journal of the Royal Society Interface

By:
, , , , , , , , ,

Links

Abstract

Virulent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) since 2005 have raised the question about the roles of migratory and wild birds in the transmission of HPAI. Despite increased monitoring, the role of wild waterfowl as the primary source of the highly pathogenic H5N1 has not been clearly established. The impact of outbreaks of HPAI among species of wild birds which are already endangered can nevertheless have devastating consequences for the local and non-local ecology where migratory species are established. Understanding the entangled dynamics of migration and the disease dynamics will be key to prevention and control measures for humans, migratory birds and poultry. Here, we present a spatial dynamic model of seasonal migration derived from first principles and linking the local dynamics during migratory stopovers to the larger scale migratory routes. We discuss the effect of repeated epizootic at specific migratory stopovers for bar-headed geese (Anser indicus). We find that repeated deadly outbreaks of H5N1 on stopovers during the autumn migration of bar-headed geese could lead to a larger reduction in the size of the equilibrium bird population compared with that obtained after repeated outbreaks during the spring migration. However, the opposite is true during the first few years of transition to such an equilibrium. The age-maturation process of juvenile birds which are more susceptible to H5N1 reinforces this result.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Spatial dynamics of bar-headed geese migration in the context of H5N1
Series title:
Journal of the Royal Society Interface
Volume
7
Issue:
52
Year Published:
2010
Language:
English
Publisher:
Royal Society Publishing
Publisher location:
London, England
Contributing office(s):
Western Ecological Research Center
Description:
13 p.
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
First page:
1627
Last page:
1639
Number of Pages:
13