Editor’s message: Groundwater modeling fantasies - Part 1, adrift in the details

Hydrogeology Journal
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Abstract

Fools ignore complexity. Pragmatists suffer it. Some can avoid it. Geniuses remove it. …Simplicity does not precede complexity, but follows it. (Epigrams in Programming by Alan Perlis, a computer scientist; Perlis 1982).

A doctoral student creating a groundwater model of a regional aquifer put individual circular regions around data points where he had hydraulic head measurements, so that each region’s parameter values could be adjusted to get perfect fit with the measurement at that point. Nearly every measurement point had its own parameter-value region. After calibration, the student was satisfied because his model correctly reproduced all of his data. Did he really get the true field values of parameters in this manner? Did this approach result in a realistic, meaningful and useful groundwater model?—truly doubtful. Is this story a sign of a common style of educating hydrogeology students these days? Where this is the case, major changes are needed to add back ‘common-sense hydrogeology’ to the curriculum. Worse, this type of modeling approach has become an industry trend in application of groundwater models to real systems, encouraged by the advent of automatic model calibration software that has no problem providing numbers for as many parameter value estimates as desired. Just because a computer program can easily create such values does not mean that they are in any sense useful—but unquestioning practitioners are happy to follow such software developments, perhaps because of an implied promise that highly parameterized models, here referred to as ‘complex’, are somehow superior. This and other fallacies are implicit in groundwater modeling studies, most usually not acknowledged when presenting results. This two-part Editor’s Message deals with the state of groundwater modeling: part 1 (here) focuses on problems and part 2 (Voss 2011) on prospects.

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Editor’s message: Groundwater modeling fantasies - Part 1, adrift in the details
Series title Hydrogeology Journal
DOI 10.1007/s10040-011-0789-z
Volume 19
Issue 7
Year Published 2011
Language English
Publisher Springer
Contributing office(s) Branch of Regional Research-Western Region, Toxic Substances Hydrology Program
Description 4 p.
First page 1281
Last page 1284
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