| Abstract: | The paper outlines a procedure for using an earthquake instability model and repeated geodetic measurements to attempt an earthquake forecast. The procedure differs from other prediction methods, such as recognizing trends in data or assuming failure at a critical stress level, by using a self-contained instability model that simulates both preseismic and coseismic faulting in a natural way. In short, physical theory supplies a family of curves, and the field data select the member curves whose continuation into the future constitutes a prediction. Model inaccuracy and resolving power of the data determine the uncertainty of the selected curves and hence the uncertainty of the earthquake time. |
| Genre: | Article |
| ProdID: | 70013487 |
| Citation Author: | Stuart, William, D.; Archuleta, Ralph, J.; Lindh, Allan, G. |
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| Citation End Page: | 604 |
| Citation Issue: | B1 |
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| Citation Language: | English |
| Citation Larger Work Title: | Journal of Geophysical Research |
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| Citation Number Of Pages: | 13 |
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| Citation Search Results Text: | FORECAST MODEL FOR MODERATE EARTHQUAKES NEAR PARKFIELD, CALIFORNIA.; 1985; Article; Journal; Journal of Geophysical Research; Stuart, William, D.; Archuleta, Ralph, J.; Lindh, Allan, G. |
| Citation Start Page: | 592 |
| Citation Volume: | 90 |
| Citation Year: | 1985 |
| Type: | citation/reference |
| Text: | FORECAST MODEL FOR MODERATE EARTHQUAKES NEAR PARKFIELD, CALIFORNIA.; 1985; Article; Journal; Journal of Geophysical Research; Stuart, William, D.; Archuleta, Ralph, J.; Lindh, Allan, G. |
| URL (THUMBNAIL): | http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg |
| Date Other: | Tue, 1 Jan 1985 00:00 -0600 |
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