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Intermediate-term, pre-earthquake phenomena in California, 1975-1986, and preliminary forecast of seismicity for the next decade

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH

By:
,
DOI: 10.1007/BF00879005

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Abstract

Intermediate-term observations preceding earthquakes of magnitude 5.7 or greater in California from 1975 through 1986 suggest that: (1) The sudden appearance of earthquakes in a previously inactive area indicates an increased likelihood of a significant earthquake in that area for a period from days to years; (2) these larger earthquakes tend to occur towards the ends of creeping fault segments; (3) one large earthquake in a region increases the likelihood of a subsequent significant event in the adjacent area; and (4) marginal evidence for the occurrence of a regional deformation event suggests that such events increase the probability of earthquake occurrence throughout the entire area. A common element in many of these observed patterns appears to be the transmission and amplification of tectonic stress changes by the mechanism of fault creep, and suggests that surface fault creep is a sensitive indicator of changes in stress. The preceding critieria are used to construct a preliminary 'forecast' of the likely locations of significant earthquakes over the next decade. ?? 1988 Birkha??user Verlag.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Intermediate-term, pre-earthquake phenomena in California, 1975-1986, and preliminary forecast of seismicity for the next decade
Series title:
Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH
DOI:
10.1007/BF00879005
Volume
126
Issue:
2-4
Year Published:
1988
Language:
English
Publisher location:
Birkha??user-Verlag
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
First page:
407
Last page:
446
Number of Pages:
40