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Forecasting petroleum discoveries in sparsely drilled areas: Nigeria and the North Sea

Mathematical Geology

By:
and
DOI: 10.1007/BF00890190

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Abstract

Decline function methods for projecting future discoveries generally capture the crowding effects of wildcat wells on the discovery rate. However, these methods do not accommodate easily situations where exploration areas and horizons are expanding. In this paper, a method is presented that uses a mapping algorithm for separating these often countervailing influences. The method is applied to Nigeria and the North Sea. For an amount of future drilling equivalent to past drilling (825 wildcat wells), future discoveries (in resources found) for Nigeria are expected to decline by 68% per well but still amount to 8.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). Similarly, for the total North Sea for an equivalent amount and mix among areas of past drilling (1322 wildcat wells), future discoveries are expected to amount to 17.9 billion BOE, whereas the average discovery rate per well is expected to decline by 71%. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Forecasting petroleum discoveries in sparsely drilled areas: Nigeria and the North Sea
Series title:
Mathematical Geology
DOI:
10.1007/BF00890190
Volume
20
Issue:
7
Year Published:
1988
Language:
English
Publisher location:
Kluwer Academic Publishers-Plenum Publishers
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
Mathematical Geology
First page:
763
Last page:
776
Number of Pages:
14