thumbnail

Forecasting rates of hydrocarbon discoveries in a changing economic environment

Marine and Petroleum Geology

By:
and
DOI: 10.1016/0264-8172(84)90133-8

Links

Abstract

A method is presented for the estimation of undiscovered oil and gas resources in partially explored areas where economic truncation has caused some discoveries to go unreported; therefore distorting the relationship between the observed discovery size distribution and the parent or ultimate field size distribution. The method is applied to the UK's northern and central North Sea provinces. A discovery process model is developed to estimate the number and size distribution of undiscovered fields in this area as of 1983. The model is also used to forecast the rate at which fields will be discovered in the future. The appraisal and forecasts pertain to fields in size classes as small as 24 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). Estimated undiscovered hydrocarbon resources of 11.79 billion BOE are expected to be contained in 170 remaining fields. Over the first 500 wildcat wells after 1 January 1983, the discovery rate in this areas is expected to decline by 60% from 15 million BOE per wildcat well to six million BOE per wildcat well. ?? 1984.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Forecasting rates of hydrocarbon discoveries in a changing economic environment
Series title:
Marine and Petroleum Geology
DOI:
10.1016/0264-8172(84)90133-8
Volume
1
Issue:
4
Year Published:
1984
Language:
English
Publisher:
Elsevier
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
Marine and Petroleum Geology
First page:
313
Last page:
318
Number of Pages:
6