Probability theory versus simulation of petroleum potential in play analysis
Annals of Operations Research
By: R. A. Crovelli
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Abstract
An analytic probabilistic methodology for resource appraisal of undiscovered oil and gas resources in play analysis is presented. This play-analysis methodology is a geostochastic system for petroleum resource appraisal in explored as well as frontier areas. An objective was to replace an existing Monte Carlo simulation method in order to increase the efficiency of the appraisal process. Underlying the two methods is a single geologic model which considers both the uncertainty of the presence of the assessed hydrocarbon and its amount if present. The results of the model are resource estimates of crude oil, nonassociated gas, dissolved gas, and gas for a geologic play in terms of probability distributions. The analytic method is based upon conditional probability theory and a closed form solution of all means and standard deviations, along with the probabilities of occurrence. ?? 1987 J.C. Baltzer A.G., Scientific Publishing Company.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Probability theory versus simulation of petroleum potential in play analysis |
| Series title | Annals of Operations Research |
| DOI | 10.1007/BF02187102 |
| Volume | 8 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Year Published | 1987 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Baltzer Science Publishers |
| Publisher location | Baarn/Kluwer Academic Publishers |
| Larger Work Type | Article |
| Larger Work Subtype | Journal Article |
| Larger Work Title | Annals of Operations Research |
| First page | 363 |
| Last page | 381 |
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