| Abstract: | After a strong earthquake, the possibility of the occurrence of either significant aftershocks or an even stronger mainshock is a continuing hazard that threatens the resumption of critical services and reoccupation of essential but partially damaged structures. A stochastic parametric model allows determination of probabilities for aftershocks and larger mainshocks during intervals following the mainshock. The probabilities depend strongly on the model parameters, which are estimated with Bayesian statistics from both the ongoing aftershock sequence and from a suite of historic California aftershock sequences. Probabilities for damaging aftershocks and greater mainshocks are typically well-constrained after the first day of the sequence, with accuracy increasing with time. |
| Genre: | Article |
| ProdID: | 70015059 |
| Citation Author: | Reasenberg, P. A.; Jones, L. M. |
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| Citation End Page: | 1176 |
| Citation Issue: | 4895 |
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| Citation Language: | English |
| Citation Larger Work Title: | Science |
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| Citation Number Of Pages: | 4 |
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| Citation Search Results Text: | Earthquake hazard after a mainshock in California; 1989; Article; Journal; Science; Reasenberg, P. A.; Jones, L. M. |
| Citation Start Page: | 1173 |
| Citation Volume: | 243 |
| Citation Year: | 1989 |
| Type: | citation/reference |
| Text: | Earthquake hazard after a mainshock in California; 1989; Article; Journal; Science; Reasenberg, P. A.; Jones, L. M. |
| URL (THUMBNAIL): | http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg |
| Date Other: | Sun, 1 Jan 1989 00:00 -0600 |
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