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Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-time

Nature

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Abstract

THE 'materials science' method for eruption prediction1-3 arises from the application of a general law governing the failure of materials: ??-?? ??-A=0, where A and ?? are empirical constants, and ?? is an observable quantity such as ground deformation, seismicity or gas emission. This law leads to the idea of the 'inverse-rate' plot, in which the time of failure can be estimated by extrapolation of the curve of ??-1 versus time to a pre-deter-mined intercept. Here we suggest that this method can be combined with real-time seismic amplitude monitoring to provide a tool for near-real-time eruption prediction, and we demonstrate how it might have been used to predict two dome-growth episodes at Mount St Helens volcano in 1985 and 1986, and two explosive eruptions at Redoubt volcano in 1989-90.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-time
Series title:
Nature
Volume
350
Issue:
6320
Year Published:
1991
Language:
English
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
Nature
First page:
695
Last page:
698
Number of Pages:
4