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The uncertainty in earthquake conditional probabilities

Geophysical Research Letters

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Abstract

The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) questioned the relevance of uncertainty intervals assigned to earthquake conditional probabilities on the basis that the uncertainty in the probability estimate seemed to be greater the smaller the intrinsic breadth of the recurrence-interval distribution. It is shown here that this paradox depends upon a faulty measure of uncertainty in the conditional probability and that with a proper measure of uncertainty no paradox exists. The assertion that the WGCEP probability assessment in 1988 correctly forecast the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake is also challenged by showing that posterior probability of rupture inferred after the occurrence of the earthquake from the prior WGCEP probability distribution reverts to a nearly informationless distribution. -Author

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
The uncertainty in earthquake conditional probabilities
Series title:
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume
19
Issue:
7
Year Published:
1992
Language:
English
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
Geophysical Research Letters
First page:
709
Last page:
712