| Abstract: | The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) questioned the relevance of uncertainty intervals assigned to earthquake conditional probabilities on the basis that the uncertainty in the probability estimate seemed to be greater the smaller the intrinsic breadth of the recurrence-interval distribution. It is shown here that this paradox depends upon a faulty measure of uncertainty in the conditional probability and that with a proper measure of uncertainty no paradox exists. The assertion that the WGCEP probability assessment in 1988 correctly forecast the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake is also challenged by showing that posterior probability of rupture inferred after the occurrence of the earthquake from the prior WGCEP probability distribution reverts to a nearly informationless distribution. -Author |
| Genre: | Article |
| ProdID: | 70017277 |
| Citation Author: | Savage, J. C. |
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| Citation End Page: | 712 |
| Citation Issue: | 7 |
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| Citation Language: | English |
| Citation Larger Work Title: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Citation Number Of Pages: | 4 |
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| Citation Search Results Text: | The uncertainty in earthquake conditional probabilities; 1992; Article; Journal; Geophysical Research Letters; Savage, J. C. |
| Citation Start Page: | 709 |
| Citation Volume: | 19 |
| Citation Year: | 1992 |
| Type: | citation/reference |
| Text: | The uncertainty in earthquake conditional probabilities; 1992; Article; Journal; Geophysical Research Letters; Savage, J. C. |
| URL (THUMBNAIL): | http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg |
| Date Other: | Wed, 1 Jan 1992 00:00 -0600 |
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