| Abstract: | Case studies where time of failure is known for rainfall-triggered debris flows can be used to estimate the parameters of a hazard model in which the probability of failure is a function of time. As an example, a time-dependent function for the conditional probability of a soil slip is estimated from independent variables representing hillside morphology, approximations of material properties, and the duration and rate of rainfall. If probabilities are calculated in a GIS (geomorphic information system ) environment, the spatial distribution of the result for any given hour can be displayed on a map. Although the probability levels in this example are uncalibrated, the method offers a potential for evaluating different physical models and different earth-science variables by comparing the map distribution of predicted probabilities with inventory maps for different areas and different storms. If linked with spatial and temporal socio-economic variables, this method could be used for short-term risk assessment. |
| Genre: | Conference Paper |
| ProdID: | 70017922 |
| Citation Author: | Campbell, Russell, H.; Bernknopf, Richard, L. |
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| Citation Editor: | Shen Hsieh WenSu S.T.Wen Feng |
| Citation End Page: | 1907 |
| Citation Issue: | pt 2 |
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| Citation Language: | English |
| Citation Larger Work Title: | Proceedings - National Conference on Hydraulic Engineering |
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| Citation Number Of Pages: | 6 |
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| Citation Publisher: | Publ by ASCE |
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| Citation Search Results Text: | Time-dependent landslide probability mapping; 1993; Conference Paper; Proceedings - National Conference on Hydraulic Engineering; Campbell, Russell, H.; Bernknopf, Richard, L. |
| Citation Start Page: | 1902 |
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| Citation Year: | 1993 |
| Type: | citation/reference |
| Text: | Time-dependent landslide probability mapping; 1993; Conference Paper; Proceedings - National Conference on Hydraulic Engineering; Campbell, Russell, H.; Bernknopf, Richard, L. |
| URL (THUMBNAIL): | http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg |
| Date Other: | Fri, 1 Jan 1993 00:00 -0600 |
| Publisher: | Publ by ASCE |
