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Time-dependent landslide probability mapping

By:
,
Edited by:
Shen Hsieh WenSu S.T.Wen Feng

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Abstract

Case studies where time of failure is known for rainfall-triggered debris flows can be used to estimate the parameters of a hazard model in which the probability of failure is a function of time. As an example, a time-dependent function for the conditional probability of a soil slip is estimated from independent variables representing hillside morphology, approximations of material properties, and the duration and rate of rainfall. If probabilities are calculated in a GIS (geomorphic information system ) environment, the spatial distribution of the result for any given hour can be displayed on a map. Although the probability levels in this example are uncalibrated, the method offers a potential for evaluating different physical models and different earth-science variables by comparing the map distribution of predicted probabilities with inventory maps for different areas and different storms. If linked with spatial and temporal socio-economic variables, this method could be used for short-term risk assessment.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Conference Paper
Publication Subtype:
Conference Paper
Title:
Time-dependent landslide probability mapping
ISBN:
0872629201
Issue:
pt 2
Year Published:
1993
Language:
English
Publisher:
Publ by ASCE
Publisher location:
New York, NY, United States
Larger Work Title:
Proceedings - National Conference on Hydraulic Engineering
First page:
1902
Last page:
1907
Number of Pages:
6
Conference Title:
Proceedings of the National Conference on Hydraulic Engineering
Conference Location:
San Francisco, CA, USA
Conference Date:
25 July 1993 through 30 July 1993