| Abstract: | Eight earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to seven have occurred in southern California in the past 200 years. If one assumes that such events are the product of a Poisson process, the probability of one or more earthquakes of magnitude seven or larger in southern California within any 30 year interval is 67% ?? 23% (95% confidence interval). Because five of the eight M ??? 7 earthquakes in southern California in the last 200 years occurred away from the San Andreas fault system, the probability of one or more M ??? 7 earthquakes in southern California but not on the San Andreas fault system occurring within 30 years is 52% ?? 27% (95% confidence interval). -Author |
| Genre: | Article |
| ProdID: | 70017964 |
| Citation Author: | Savage, J. C. |
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| Citation End Page: | 315 |
| Citation Issue: | 4 |
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| Citation Language: | English |
| Citation Larger Work Title: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Citation Number Of Pages: | 3 |
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| Citation Search Results Text: | Probability of one or more M ???7 earthquakes in southern California in 30 years; 1994; Article; Journal; Geophysical Research Letters; Savage, J. C. |
| Citation Start Page: | 313 |
| Citation Volume: | 21 |
| Citation Year: | 1994 |
| Type: | citation/reference |
| Text: | Probability of one or more M ???7 earthquakes in southern California in 30 years; 1994; Article; Journal; Geophysical Research Letters; Savage, J. C. |
| URL (THUMBNAIL): | http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg |
| URL (DIGITAL OBJECT IDENTIFIER): | http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/94GL00190 |
| Date Other: | Sat, 1 Jan 1994 00:00 -0600 |
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