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Probability of one or more M ≥7 earthquakes in southern California in 30 years

Geophysical Research Letters

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DOI: 10.1029/94GL00190

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Abstract

Eight earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to seven have occurred in southern California in the past 200 years. If one assumes that such events are the product of a Poisson process, the probability of one or more earthquakes of magnitude seven or larger in southern California within any 30 year interval is 67% ?? 23% (95% confidence interval). Because five of the eight M ??? 7 earthquakes in southern California in the last 200 years occurred away from the San Andreas fault system, the probability of one or more M ??? 7 earthquakes in southern California but not on the San Andreas fault system occurring within 30 years is 52% ?? 27% (95% confidence interval). -Author

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Probability of one or more M ≥7 earthquakes in southern California in 30 years
Series title:
Geophysical Research Letters
DOI:
10.1029/94GL00190
Volume
21
Issue:
4
Year Published:
1994
Language:
English
Publisher:
AGU Publications
Description:
3 p.
First page:
313
Last page:
315
Online Only (Y/N):
N
Additional Online Files(Y/N):
N