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Role of stress triggering in earthquake migration on the North Anatolian fault

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth

By:
, ,
DOI: 10.1016/S0079-1946(97)00039-6

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Abstract

Ten M???6.7 earthquakes ruptured 1,000 km of the North Anatolian fault (Turkey) during 1939-92, providing an unsurpassed opportunity to study how one large shock sets up the next. Calculations of the change in Coulomb failure stress reveal that 9 out of 10 ruptures were brought closer to failure by the preceding shocks, typically by 5 bars, equivalent to 20 years of secular stressing. We translate the calculated stress changes into earthquake probabilities using an earthquake-nucleation constitutive relation, which includes both permanent and transient stress effects. For the typical 10-year period between triggering and subsequent rupturing shocks in the Anatolia sequence, the stress changes yield an average three-fold gain in the ensuing earthquake probability. Stress is now calculated to be high at several isolated sites along the fault. During the next 30 years, we estimate a 15% probability of a M???6.7 earthquake east of the major eastern center of Erzincan, and a 12% probability for a large event south of the major western port city of Izmit. Such stress-based probability calculations may thus be useful to assess and update earthquake hazards elsewhere. ?? 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Role of stress triggering in earthquake migration on the North Anatolian fault
Series title:
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth
DOI:
10.1016/S0079-1946(97)00039-6
Volume
21
Issue:
4
Year Published:
1996
Language:
English
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
First page:
225
Last page:
230
Number of Pages:
6