| Abstract: | Ten M???6.7 earthquakes ruptured 1,000 km of the North Anatolian fault (Turkey) during 1939-92, providing an unsurpassed opportunity to study how one large shock sets up the next. Calculations of the change in Coulomb failure stress reveal that 9 out of 10 ruptures were brought closer to failure by the preceding shocks, typically by 5 bars, equivalent to 20 years of secular stressing. We translate the calculated stress changes into earthquake probabilities using an earthquake-nucleation constitutive relation, which includes both permanent and transient stress effects. For the typical 10-year period between triggering and subsequent rupturing shocks in the Anatolia sequence, the stress changes yield an average three-fold gain in the ensuing earthquake probability. Stress is now calculated to be high at several isolated sites along the fault. During the next 30 years, we estimate a 15% probability of a M???6.7 earthquake east of the major eastern center of Erzincan, and a 12% probability for a large event south of the major western port city of Izmit. Such stress-based probability calculations may thus be useful to assess and update earthquake hazards elsewhere. ?? 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. |
| Genre: | Article |
| ProdID: | 70018540 |
| Citation Author: | Stein, R. S.; Dieterich, J. H.; Barka, A. A. |
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| Citation End Page: | 230 |
| Citation Issue: | 4 |
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| Citation Language: | English |
| Citation Larger Work Title: | Physics and Chemistry of the Earth |
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| Citation Number Of Pages: | 6 |
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| Citation Search Results Text: | Role of stress triggering in earthquake migration on the North Anatolian fault; 1996; Article; Journal; Physics and Chemistry of the Earth; Stein, R. S.; Dieterich, J. H.; Barka, A. A. |
| Citation Start Page: | 225 |
| Citation Volume: | 21 |
| Citation Year: | 1996 |
| Type: | citation/reference |
| Text: | Role of stress triggering in earthquake migration on the North Anatolian fault; 1996; Article; Journal; Physics and Chemistry of the Earth; Stein, R. S.; Dieterich, J. H.; Barka, A. A. |
| URL (THUMBNAIL): | http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg |
| URL (DIGITAL OBJECT IDENTIFIER): | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0079-1946(97)00039-6 |
| Date Other: | Mon, 1 Jan 1996 00:00 -0600 |
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