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Bootstrap position analysis for forecasting low flow frequency

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management

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Abstract

A method of random resampling of residuals from stochastic models is used to generate a large number of 12-month-long traces of natural monthly runoff to be used in a position analysis model for a water-supply storage and delivery system. Position analysis uses the traces to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes such as reservoir levels falling below a specified level or streamflows falling below statutory passing flows conditioned on the current reservoir levels and streamflows. The advantages of this resampling scheme, called bootstrap position analysis, are that it does not rely on the unverifiable assumption of normality, fewer parameters need to be estimated directly from the data, and accounting for parameter uncertainty is easily done. For a given set of operating rules and water-use requirements for a system, water managers can use such a model as a decision-making tool to evaluate different operating rules. ?? ASCE,.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Bootstrap position analysis for forecasting low flow frequency
Series title:
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume
123
Issue:
6
Year Published:
1997
Language:
English
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
First page:
359
Last page:
367
Number of Pages:
9