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Forecasting drought risks for a water supply storage system using bootstrap position analysis

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Abstract

Forecasting the likelihood of drought conditions is an integral part of managing a water supply storage and delivery system. Position analysis uses a large number of possible flow sequences as inputs to a simulation of a water supply storage and delivery system. For a given set of operating rules and water use requirements, water managers can use such a model to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes such as reservoir levels falling below a specified level or streamflows falling below statutory passing flows a few months ahead conditioned on the current reservoir levels and streamflows. The large number of possible flow sequences are generated using a stochastic streamflow model with a random resampling of innovations. The advantages of this resampling scheme, called bootstrap position analysis, are that it does not rely on the unverifiable assumption of normality and it allows incorporation of long-range weather forecasts into the analysis.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Conference Paper
Publication Subtype:
Conference Paper
Title:
Forecasting drought risks for a water supply storage system using bootstrap position analysis
Volume
A
Year Published:
1997
Language:
English
Publisher:
ASCE
Publisher location:
New York, NY, United States
Larger Work Title:
Proceedings, Congress of the International Association of Hydraulic Research, IAHR
First page:
645
Last page:
650
Number of Pages:
6
Conference Title:
Proceedings of the 1997 27th Congress of the International Association of Hydraulic Research, IAHR. Part C
Conference Location:
San Francisco, CA, USA
Conference Date:
10 August 1997 through 15 August 1997