| Abstract: | Forecasting the likelihood of drought conditions is an integral part of managing a water supply storage and delivery system. Position analysis uses a large number of possible flow sequences as inputs to a simulation of a water supply storage and delivery system. For a given set of operating rules and water use requirements, water managers can use such a model to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes such as reservoir levels falling below a specified level or streamflows falling below statutory passing flows a few months ahead conditioned on the current reservoir levels and streamflows. The large number of possible flow sequences are generated using a stochastic streamflow model with a random resampling of innovations. The advantages of this resampling scheme, called bootstrap position analysis, are that it does not rely on the unverifiable assumption of normality and it allows incorporation of long-range weather forecasts into the analysis. |
| Genre: | Conference Paper |
| ProdID: | 70020321 |
| Citation Author: | Tasker, Gary; Dunne, Paul |
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| Citation End Page: | 650 |
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| Citation Language: | English |
| Citation Larger Work Title: | Proceedings, Congress of the International Association of Hydraulic Research, IAHR |
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| Citation Number Of Pages: | 6 |
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| Citation Publisher: | ASCE |
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| Citation Search Results Text: | Forecasting drought risks for a water supply storage system using bootstrap position analysis; 1997; Conference Paper; Proceedings, Congress of the International Association of Hydraulic Research, IAHR; Tasker, Gary; Dunne, Paul |
| Citation Start Page: | 645 |
| Citation Volume: | A |
| Citation Year: | 1997 |
| Type: | citation/reference |
| Text: | Forecasting drought risks for a water supply storage system using bootstrap position analysis; 1997; Conference Paper; Proceedings, Congress of the International Association of Hydraulic Research, IAHR; Tasker, Gary; Dunne, Paul |
| URL (THUMBNAIL): | http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg |
| Date Other: | Wed, 1 Jan 1997 00:00 -0600 |
| Publisher: | ASCE |
