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Evidence for surface rupture in 1868 on the Hayward fault in north Oakland and major rupturing in prehistoric earthquakes

Geophysical Research Letters

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Abstract

WGCEP90 estimated the Hayward fault to have a high probability (0.45 in 30 yr) of producing a future M7 Bay Area earthquake. This was based on a generic recurrence time and an unverified segmentation model, because there were few direct observations for the southern fault and none for the northern Hayward fault. To better constrain recurrence and segmentation of the northern Hayward fault, we trenched in north Oakland. Unexpectedly, we observed evidence of surface rupture probably from the M7 1868 earthquake. This extends the limit of that surface rupture 13 km north of the segmentation boundary used in the WGCEP90 model and forces serious re-evaluation of the current two-segment paradigm. Although we found that major prehistoric ruptures have occurred here, we could not radiocarbon date them. However, the last major prehistoric event appears correlative with a recently recognized event 13 km to the north dated AD 1640-1776. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Evidence for surface rupture in 1868 on the Hayward fault in north Oakland and major rupturing in prehistoric earthquakes
Series title:
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume
26
Issue:
13
Year Published:
1999
Language:
English
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
Geophysical Research Letters
First page:
1949
Last page:
1952
Number of Pages:
4