| Abstract: | Correlation and correlation-based measures (e.g., the coefficient of determination) have been widely used to evaluate the ‘goodness-of-fit‘ of hydrologic and hydroclimatic models. These measures are oversensitive to extreme values (outliers) and are insensitive to additive and proportional differences between model predictions and observations. Because of these limitations, correlation-based measures can indicate that a model is a good predictor, even when it is not. In this paper, useful alternative goodness-of-fit or relative error measures (including the coefficient of efficiency and the index of agreement) that overcome many of the limitations of correlation-based measures are discussed. Modifications to these statistics to aid in interpretation are presented. It is concluded that correlation and correlation-based measures should not be used to assess the goodness-of-fit of a hydrologic or hydroclimatic model and that additional evaluation measures (such as summary statistics and absolute error measures) should supplement model evaluation tools.Correlation and correlation-based measures (e.g., the coefficient of determination) have been widely used to evaluate the `goodness-of-fit‘ of hydrologic and hydroclimatic models. These measures are oversensitive to extreme values (outliers) and are insensitive to additive and proportional differences between model predictions and observations. Because of these limitations, correlation-based measures can indicate that a model is a good predictor, even when it is not. In this paper, useful alternative goodness-of-fit or relative error measures (including the coefficient of efficiency and the index of agreement) that overcome many of the limitations of correlation-based measures are discussed. Modifications to these statistics to aid in interpretation are presented. It is concluded that correlation and correlation-based measures should not be used to assess the goodness-of-fit of a hydrologic or hydroclimatic model and that additional evaluation measures (such as summary statistics and absolute error measures) should supplement model evaluation tools. |
| Genre: | Article |
| ProdID: | 70021955 |
| Citation Author: | Legates, D. R.; McCabe, Jr. , G. J. |
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| Citation End Page: | 241 |
| Citation Issue: | 1 |
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| Citation Language: | English |
| Citation Larger Work Title: | Water Resources Research |
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| Citation Number Of Pages: | 9 |
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| Citation Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
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| Citation Search Results Text: | Evaluating the use of ‘goodness-of-fit‘ measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation; 1999; Article; Journal; Water Resources Research; Legates, D. R.; McCabe, Jr. , G. J. |
| Citation Start Page: | 233 |
| Citation Volume: | 35 |
| Citation Year: | 1999 |
| Type: | citation/reference |
| Text: | Evaluating the use of ‘goodness-of-fit‘ measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation; 1999; Article; Journal; Water Resources Research; Legates, D. R.; McCabe, Jr. , G. J. |
| URL (THUMBNAIL): | http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg |
| URL (DIGITAL OBJECT IDENTIFIER): | http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/1998WR900018 |
| Date Other: | Fri, 1 Jan 1999 00:00 -0600 |
| Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
