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Probability of rupture of multiple fault segments

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

By:
,
DOI: 10.1785/0119990163

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Abstract

Fault segments identified from geologic and historic evidence have sometimes been adopted as features limiting the likely extends of earthquake ruptures. There is no doubt that individual segments can sometimes join together to produce larger earthquakes. This work is a trial of an objective method to determine the probability of multisegment ruptures. The frequency of occurrence of events on all conjectured combinations of adjacent segments in northern California is found by fitting to both geologic slip rates and to an assumed distribution of event sizes for the region as a whole. Uncertainty in the shape of the distribution near the maximum magnitude has a large effect on the solution. Frequencies of individual events cannot be determined, but it is possible to find a set of frequencies to fit a model closely. A robust conclusion for the San Francisco Bay region is that large multisegment events occur on the San Andreas and San Gregorio faults, but single-segment events predominate on the extended Hayward and Calaveras strands of segments.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Probability of rupture of multiple fault segments
Series title:
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
DOI:
10.1785/0119990163
Volume
90
Issue:
6
Year Published:
2000
Language:
English
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
First page:
1498
Last page:
1506
Number of Pages:
9