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Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: an interaction-based probability calculation

Science

By:
, , , , and
DOI: 10.1126/science.288.5466.661

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Abstract

We calculate the probability of strong shaking in Istanbul, an urban center of 10 million people, from the description of earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault system in the Marmara Sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in Istanbul during the preceding millennium, departing from current practice, we include the time-dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to faults nearer to Istanbul. We find a 62 ± 15% probability (one standard deviation) of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32 ± 12% during the next decade.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: an interaction-based probability calculation
Series title:
Science
DOI:
10.1126/science.288.5466.661
Volume
288
Issue:
5466
Year Published:
2000
Language:
English
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
Science
First page:
661
Last page:
665