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Predictability of Bristol Bay, Alaska, sockeye salmon returns one to four years in the future

North American Journal of Fisheries Management

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Abstract

Historically, forecast error for returns of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka to Bristol Bay, Alaska, has been large. Using cross-validation forecast error as our criterion, we selected forecast models for each of the nine principal Bristol Bay drainages. Competing forecast models included stock-recruitment relationships, environmental variables, prior returns of siblings, or combinations of these predictors. For most stocks, we found prior returns of siblings to be the best single predictor of returns; however, forecast accuracy was low even when multiple predictors were considered. For a typical drainage, an 80% confidence interval ranged from one half to double the point forecast. These confidence intervals appeared to be appropriately wide.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Predictability of Bristol Bay, Alaska, sockeye salmon returns one to four years in the future
Series title:
North American Journal of Fisheries Management
Volume
20
Issue:
1
Year Published:
2000
Language:
English
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
North American Journal of Fisheries Management
First page:
69
Last page:
80
Number of Pages:
12