Probability of nitrate contamination of recently recharged groundwaters in the conterminous United States
Environmental Science & Technology
By: B. T. Nolan, K.J. Hitt, and B. C. Ruddy
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Abstract
A new logistic regression (LR) model was used to predict the probability of nitrate contamination exceeding 4 mg/L in predominantly shallow, recently recharged ground waters of the United States. The new model contains variables representing (1) N fertilizer loading (p < 0.001) , (2) percent cropland-pasture (p < 0.001), (3) natural log of human population density (p < 0.001), (4) percent well-drained soils (p < 0.001), (5) depth to the seasonally high water table (p <0.001), and (6) presence or absence of unconsolidated sand and gravel aquifers (p = 0.002). Observed and average predicted probabilities associated with deciles of risk are well correlated (r2 = 0.875), indicating that the LR model fits the data well. The likelihood of nitrate contamination is greater in areas with high N loading and well-drained surficial soils over unconsolidated sand and gravels. The LR model correctly predicted the status of nitrate contamination in 75% of wells in a validation data set. Considering all wells used in both calibration and validation, observed median nitrate concentration increased from 0.24 to 8.30 mg/L as the mapped probability of nitrate exceeding 4 mg/L increased from less than or equal to 0.17 to > 0.83.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Probability of nitrate contamination of recently recharged groundwaters in the conterminous United States |
| Series title | Environmental Science & Technology |
| DOI | 10.1021/es0113854 |
| Volume | 36 |
| Issue | 10 |
| Year Published | 2002 |
| Language | English |
| Larger Work Type | Article |
| Larger Work Subtype | Journal Article |
| Larger Work Title | Environmental Science and Technology |
| First page | 2138 |
| Last page | 2145 |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |