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Estimating debris-flow probability using fan stratigraphy, historic records, and drainage-basin morphology, Interstate 70 highway corridor, central Colorado, U.S.A

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, , , and
Edited by:
Rickenmann D.Chen C.L.

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Abstract

We have used stratigraphic and historic records of debris-flows to estimate mean recurrence intervals of past debris-flow events on 19 fans along the Interstate 70 highway corridor in the Front Range of Colorado. Estimated mean recurrence intervals were used in the Poisson probability model to estimate the probability of future debris-flow events on the fans. Mean recurrence intervals range from 7 to about 2900 years. Annual probabilities range from less than 0.1% to about 13%. A regression analysis of mean recurrence interval data and drainage-basin morphometry yields a regression model that may be suitable to estimate mean recurrence intervals on fans with no stratigraphic or historic records. Additional work is needed to verify this model. ?? 2003 Millpress.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Conference Paper
Publication Subtype:
Conference Paper
Title:
Estimating debris-flow probability using fan stratigraphy, historic records, and drainage-basin morphology, Interstate 70 highway corridor, central Colorado, U.S.A
Volume
2
Year Published:
2003
Language:
English
Larger Work Title:
International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction, and Assessment, Proceedings
First page:
1085
Last page:
1096
Conference Title:
3rd International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction, and Assessment
Conference Location:
Davos
Conference Date:
10 September 2003 through 12 September 2003