| Abstract: | New earthquake probability calculations are made for the Sea of Marmara region and the city of Istanbul, providing a revised forecast and an evaluation of time-dependent interaction techniques. Calculations incorporate newly obtained bathymetric images of the North Anatolian fault beneath the Sea of Marmara [Le Pichon et al., 2001; Armijo et al., 2002]. Newly interpreted fault segmentation enables an improved regional A.D. 1500-2000 earthquake catalog and interevent model, which form the basis for time-dependent probability estimates. Calculations presented here also employ detailed models of coseismic and postseismic slip associated with the 17 August 1999 M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to investigate effects of stress transfer on seismic hazard. Probability changes caused by the 1999 shock depend on Marmara Sea fault-stressing rates, which are calculated with a new finite element model. The combined 2004-2034 regional Poisson probability of M ??? 7 earthquakes is ???38%, the regional time-dependent probability is 44 ?? 18%, and incorporation of stress transfer raises it to 53 ?? 18%. The most important effect of adding time dependence and stress transfer to the calculations is an increase in the 30 year probability of a M ??? 7 earthquake affecting Istanbul. The 30 year Poisson probability at Istanbul is 21%, and the addition of time dependence and stress transfer raises it to 41 ?? 14%. The ranges given on probability values are sensitivities of the calculations to input parameters determined by Monte Carlo analysis; 1000 calculations are made using parameters drawn at random from distributions. Sensitivities are large relative to mean probability values and enhancements caused by stress transfer, reflecting a poor understanding of large-earthquake aperiodicity. Copyright Published in 2004 by the American Geophysical Union. |
| Genre: | Article |
| ProdID: | 70027244 |
| Citation Author: | Parsons, T. |
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| Citation Issue: | 5 |
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| Citation Language: | English |
| Citation Larger Work Title: | Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth |
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| Citation Search Results Text: | Recalculated probability of M ??? 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey; 2004; Article; Journal; Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth; Parsons, T. |
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| Citation Volume: | 109 |
| Citation Year: | 2004 |
| Type: | citation/reference |
| Text: | Recalculated probability of M ??? 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey; 2004; Article; Journal; Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth; Parsons, T. |
| URL (THUMBNAIL): | http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg |
| URL (DIGITAL OBJECT IDENTIFIER): | http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003JB002667 |
| Date Other: | Thu, 1 Jan 2004 00:00 -0600 |
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