| Abstract: | In this article we present and explore the source and ground-motion model uncertainty and parametric sensitivity for the 2002 update of the California probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Our approach is to implement a Monte Carlo simulation that allows for independent sampling from fault to fault in each simulation. The source-distance dependent characteristics of the uncertainty maps of seismic hazard are explained by the fundamental uncertainty patterns from four basic test cases, in which the uncertainties from one-fault and two-fault systems are studied in detail. The California coefficient of variation (COV, ratio of the standard deviation to the mean) map for peak ground acceleration (10% of exceedance in 50 years) shows lower values (0.1-0.15) along the San Andreas fault system and other class A faults than along class B faults (0.2-0.3). High COV values (0.4-0.6) are found around the Garlock, Anacapa-Dume, and Palos Verdes faults in southern California and around the Maacama fault and Cascadia subduction zone in northern California. |
| Genre: | Article |
| ProdID: | 70027422 |
| Citation Author: | Cao, T.; Petersen, M. D.; Frankel, A. D. |
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| Citation End Page: | 2057 |
| Citation Issue: | 6 |
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| Citation Language: | English |
| Citation Larger Work Title: | Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America |
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| Citation Number Of Pages: | 18 |
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| Citation Search Results Text: | Model uncertainties of the 2002 update of California seismic hazard maps; 2005; Article; Journal; Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America; Cao, T.; Petersen, M. D.; Frankel, A. D. |
| Citation Start Page: | 2040 |
| Citation Volume: | 95 |
| Citation Year: | 2005 |
| Type: | citation/reference |
| Text: | Model uncertainties of the 2002 update of California seismic hazard maps; 2005; Article; Journal; Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America; Cao, T.; Petersen, M. D.; Frankel, A. D. |
| URL (THUMBNAIL): | http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg |
| URL (DIGITAL OBJECT IDENTIFIER): | http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120050017 |
| Date Other: | Sat, 1 Jan 2005 00:00 -0600 |
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