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Modeling barrier island response to sea-level rise in the outer Banks, North Carolina

By:
, , , and
DOI: 10.1061/40926(239)89

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Abstract

An 8500-year Holocene simulation developed in GEOMBEST provides a possible scenario to explain the evolution of barrier coast between Rodanthe and Cape Hatteras, NC. Sensitivity analyses suggest that in the Outer Banks, the rate of sea-level rise is the most important factor in determining how barrier islands evolve. The Holocene simulation provides a basis for future simulations, which suggest that if sea level rises up to 0.88 m by AD 2100, as predicted by the highest estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the barrier in the study area may migrate on the order of 2.5 times more rapidly than at present. If sea level rises beyond IPCC predictions to reach 1.4–1.9 m above modern sea level by AD 2100, model results suggest that barrier islands in the Outer Banks may become vulnerable to threshold collapse, disintegrating during storm events, by the end of the next century. Consistent with sensitivity analyses, additional simulations indicate that anthropogenic activities, such as increasing the rate of sediment supply through beach nourishment, will only slightly affect barrier island migration rates and barrier island vulnerability to collapse.

Geospatial Extents

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Conference Paper
Publication Subtype:
Conference Paper
Title:
Modeling barrier island response to sea-level rise in the outer Banks, North Carolina
ISBN:
0784409269; 9780784409268
DOI:
10.1061/40926(239)89
Year Published:
2007
Language:
English
Publisher:
American Society of Civil Engineers
Contributing office(s):
Coastal and Marine Geology Program
Description:
12 p.
Larger Work Type:
Book
Larger Work Subtype:
Conference publication
Larger Work Title:
Coastal Sediments '07 - Proceedings of 6th International Symposium on Coastal Engineering and Science of Coastal Sediment Processes
First page:
1153
Last page:
1164
Conference Title:
6th International Symposium on Coastal Engineering and Science of Coastal Sediment Processes
Conference Location:
New Orleans, LA
Country:
United States
State:
North Carolina
Other Geospatial:
Outer Banks