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Hindcasting potential hurricane impacts on rapidly changing barrier islands

By:
, ,
DOI: 10.1061/40926(239)75

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Abstract

Hindcasts of the coastal impact of Hurricane Ivan on Santa Rosa Island, Florida, using a storm-impact scaling model that compares hurricane-induced water levels to local dune morphology, were found to have an accuracy of 68% in predicting the occurrence of one of four impact regimes: swash, collision, overwash, and inundation. Errors were overwhelming under-predictions of the regime where the observed response was more extreme than had been expected. This is related to the evolution of the profile during the storm. Mean pre-storm dune elevations decreased by 1.9 m over the 75-km long island as most of the dunes were completely eroded during the storm. Dramatic morphologic change during a hurricane makes barrier islands more vulnerable to overwash and inundation than will be predicted based on pre-storm dune parameters. Incorporation of the timing of rising water levels relative to storm-induced profile evolution is required to improve model accuracy.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Hindcasting potential hurricane impacts on rapidly changing barrier islands
ISBN:
0784409269; 9780784409268
DOI:
10.1061/40926(239)75
Year Published:
2007
Language:
English
Publisher:
American Society of Civil Engineers
Contributing office(s):
Coastal and Marine Geology Program
Description:
10 p.
First page:
976
Last page:
985
Number of Pages:
10
Conference Title:
6th International Symposium on Coastal Engineering and Science of Coastal Sediment Processes
Conference Location:
New Orleans, LA