The relationship between tree growth patterns and likelihood of mortality: A study of two tree species in the Sierra Nevada

Das, A. J.; Battles, J. J.; Stephenson, N. L.; Van Mantgem, P. J.

Abstract:

We examined mortality of Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. (white fir) and Pinus lambertiana Dougl. (sugar pine) by developing logistic models using three growth indices obtained from tree rings: average growth, growth trend, and count of abrupt growth declines. For P. lambertiana, models with average growth, growth trend, and count of abrupt declines improved overall prediction (78.6% dead trees correctly classified, 83.7% live trees correctly classified) compared with a model with average recent growth alone (69.6% dead trees correctly classified, 67.3% live trees correctly classified). For A. concolor, counts of abrupt declines and longer time intervals improved overall classification (trees with DBH ???20 cm: 78.9% dead trees correctly classified and 76.7% live trees correctly classified vs. 64.9% dead trees correctly classified and 77.9% live trees correctly classified; trees with DBH <20 cm: 71.6% dead trees correctly classified and 71.0% live trees correctly classified vs. 67.2% dead trees correctly classified and 66.7% live trees correctly classified). In general, count of abrupt declines improved live-tree classification. External validation of A. concolor models showed that they functioned well at stands not used in model development, and the development of size-specific models demonstrated important differences in mortality risk between understory and canopy trees. Population-level mortality-risk models were developed for A. concolor and generated realistic mortality rates at two sites. Our results support the contention that a more comprehensive use of the growth record yields a more robust assessment of mortality risk. ?? 2007 NRC.

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Article

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70032827

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Das, A. J.; Battles, J. J.; Stephenson, N. L.; Van Mantgem, P. J.

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597

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English

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Canadian Journal of Forest Research

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The relationship between tree growth patterns and likelihood of mortality: A study of two tree species in the Sierra Nevada; 2007; Article; Journal; Canadian Journal of Forest Research; Das, A. J.; Battles, J. J.; Stephenson, N. L.; Van Mantgem, P. J.