thumbnail

Earthquake recurrence on the south Hayward fault is most consistent with a time dependent, renewal process

Geophysical Research Letters

By:
DOI: 10.1029/2008GL035887

Links

Abstract

Elastic rebound and stress renewal are important components of earthquake forecasting because if large earthquakes can be shown to be periodic, then rupture probability is time dependent. While renewal models are used in formal forecasts, it has not been possible to exclude the alternate view that repeated large earthquakes can happen in rapid succession without requiring time for stress regeneration. Here a consistency test between time dependent and time independent recurrence distributions is made using a Monte Carlo method to replicate the paleoseismic series on the south Hayward fault. Time dependent distributions with recurrence interval of 210 years and coefficient of variation of 0.6 reproduce the event series on the south Hayward 5 times more often than any exponential distribution: a highly significant difference as determined using a two-tailed Z-test for relative proportions. Therefore large Hayward fault earthquakes are quasi-periodic and are most consistent with a stress renewal process.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Earthquake recurrence on the south Hayward fault is most consistent with a time dependent, renewal process
Series title:
Geophysical Research Letters
DOI:
10.1029/2008GL035887
Volume
35
Issue:
21
Year Published:
2008
Language:
English
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
Geophysical Research Letters