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Reconciling uncertain costs and benefits in bayes nets for invasive species management

Risk Analysis

By:
, , , , ,
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01273.x

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Abstract

Bayes nets are used increasingly to characterize environmental systems and formalize probabilistic reasoning to support decision making. These networks treat probabilities as exact quantities. Sensitivity analysis can be used to evaluate the importance of assumptions and parameter estimates. Here, we outline an application of info-gap theory to Bayes nets that evaluates the sensitivity of decisions to possibly large errors in the underlying probability estimates and utilities. We apply it to an example of management and eradication of Red Imported Fire Ants in Southern Queensland, Australia and show how changes in management decisions can be justified when uncertainty is considered. ?? 2009 Society for Risk Analysis.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Reconciling uncertain costs and benefits in bayes nets for invasive species management
Series title:
Risk Analysis
DOI:
10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01273.x
Volume
30
Issue:
2
Year Published:
2010
Language:
English
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
First page:
277
Last page:
284
Number of Pages:
8