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Quality of the log-geometric distribution extrapolation for smaller undiscovered oil and gas pool size

Natural Resources Research

By:
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DOI: 10.1007/s11053-010-9109-x

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Abstract

The U.S. Geological Survey procedure for the estimation of the general form of the parent distribution requires that the parameters of the log-geometric distribution be calculated and analyzed for the sensitivity of these parameters to different conditions. In this study, we derive the shape factor of a log-geometric distribution from the ratio of frequencies between adjacent bins. The shape factor has a log straight-line relationship with the ratio of frequencies. Additionally, the calculation equations of a ratio of the mean size to the lower size-class boundary are deduced. For a specific log-geometric distribution, we find that the ratio of the mean size to the lower size-class boundary is the same. We apply our analysis to simulations based on oil and gas pool distributions from four petroleum systems of Alberta, Canada and four generated distributions. Each petroleum system in Alberta has a different shape factor. Generally, the shape factors in the four petroleum systems stabilize with the increase of discovered pool numbers. For a log-geometric distribution, the shape factor becomes stable when discovered pool numbers exceed 50 and the shape factor is influenced by the exploration efficiency when the exploration efficiency is less than 1. The simulation results show that calculated shape factors increase with those of the parent distributions, and undiscovered oil and gas resources estimated through the log-geometric distribution extrapolation are smaller than the actual values. ?? 2010 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Quality of the log-geometric distribution extrapolation for smaller undiscovered oil and gas pool size
Series title:
Natural Resources Research
DOI:
10.1007/s11053-010-9109-x
Volume
19
Issue:
1
Year Published:
2010
Language:
English
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
Natural Resources Research
First page:
11
Last page:
21
Number of Pages:
11