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Evaluation of procedures for prediction of unconventional gas in the presence of geologic trends

Natural Resources Research

By:
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DOI: 10.1007/s11053-009-9100-6

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Abstract

This study extends the application of local spatial nonparametric prediction models to the estimation of recoverable gas volumes in continuous-type gas plays to regimes where there is a single geologic trend. A transformation is presented, originally proposed by Tomczak, that offsets the distortions caused by the trend. This article reports on numerical experiments that compare predictive and classification performance of the local nonparametric prediction models based on the transformation with models based on Euclidean distance. The transformation offers improvement in average root mean square error when the trend is not severely misspecified. Because of the local nature of the models, even those based on Euclidean distance in the presence of trends are reasonably robust. The tests based on other model performance metrics such as prediction error associated with the high-grade tracts and the ability of the models to identify sites with the largest gas volumes also demonstrate the robustness of both local modeling approaches. ?? International Association for Mathematical Geology 2009.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Evaluation of procedures for prediction of unconventional gas in the presence of geologic trends
Series title:
Natural Resources Research
DOI:
10.1007/s11053-009-9100-6
Volume
18
Issue:
3
Year Published:
2009
Language:
English
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
First page:
153
Last page:
171
Number of Pages:
19