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Forecasting distributions of large federal-lands fires utilizing satellite and gridded weather information

International Journal of Wildland Fire

By:
, , , ,
DOI: 10.1071/WF08032

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Abstract

The current study presents a statistical model for assessing the skill of fire danger indices and for forecasting the distribution of the expected numbers of large fires over a given region and for the upcoming week. The procedure permits development of daily maps that forecast, for the forthcoming week and within federal lands, percentiles of the distributions of (i) number of ignitions; (ii) number of fires above a given size; (iii) conditional probabilities of fires greater than a specified size, given ignition. As an illustration, we used the methods to study the skill of the Fire Potential Index an index that incorporates satellite and surface observations to map fire potential at a national scale in forecasting distributions of large fires. ?? 2009 IAWF.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Forecasting distributions of large federal-lands fires utilizing satellite and gridded weather information
Series title:
International Journal of Wildland Fire
DOI:
10.1071/WF08032
Volume
18
Issue:
5
Year Published:
2009
Language:
English
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
First page:
508
Last page:
516
Number of Pages:
9