| Abstract: | Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds. |
| Genre: | Article |
| ProdID: | 70039314 |
| Citation Author: | Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M. |
| Citation Contributing Office: | Patuxent Wildlife Research Center |
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| Citation End Page: | 678 |
| Citation Issue: | 4 |
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| Citation Language: | English |
| Citation Larger Work Title: | Conservation Biology |
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| Citation Number Of Pages: | 12 |
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| Citation Phsyical Description: | 12 p. |
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| Citation Publisher: | Society for Conservation Biology |
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| Citation Search Results Text: | Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise; 2012; Article; Journal; Conservation Biology; Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M. |
| Citation Start Page: | 667 |
| Citation Volume: | 26 |
| Citation Year: | 2012 |
| Type: | citation/reference |
| Text: | Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise; 2012; Article; Journal; Conservation Biology; Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M. |
| URL (THUMBNAIL): | http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/thumbnails/outside_thumb.jpg |
| URL (DIGITAL OBJECT IDENTIFIER): | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2012.01853.x |
| Date Other: | Wed, 1 Aug 2012 00:00 -0500 |
| Publisher: | Society for Conservation Biology |
