Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality

A. Park Williams; Alison K. Macalady; Connie A. Woodhouse; Craig D Allen; Craig D Allen; Daniel Griffin; David M. Meko

Abstract:

As the climate changes, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across many forest ecosystems; however, the relative influence of specific climate parameters on forest decline is poorly understood. We derive a forest drought-stress index (FDSI) for the southwestern United States using a comprehensive tree-ring data set representing AD 1000–2007. The FDSI is approximately equally influenced by the warm-season vapour-pressure deficit (largely controlled by temperature) and cold-season precipitation, together explaining 82% of the FDSI variability. Correspondence between the FDSI and measures of forest productivity, mortality, bark-beetle outbreak and wildfire validate the FDSI as a holistic forest-vigour indicator. If the vapour-pressure deficit continues increasing as projected by climate models, the mean forest drought-stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in the past 1,000 years. Collectively, the results foreshadow twenty-first-century changes in forest structures and compositions, with transition of forests in the southwestern United States, and perhaps water-limited forests globally, towards distributions unfamiliar to modern civilization.

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Article

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70039757

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A. Park Williams;Alison K. Macalady;Connie A. Woodhouse;Craig D Allen;Craig D Allen;Daniel Griffin;David M. Meko

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Fort Collins Science Center

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English

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Nature Climate Change

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online

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Nature Publishing Group

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Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality; 2012; Article; Journal; Nature Climate Change; A. Park Williams;Alison K. Macalady;Connie A. Woodhouse;Craig D Allen;Craig D Allen;Daniel Griffin;David M. Meko