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A risk-based approach to evaluating wildlife demographics for management in a changing climate: A case study of the Lewis's Woodpecker

Environmental Management

By:
, , , , ,
DOI: 10.1007/s00267-012-9953-z

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Abstract

Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a species' response to climate into conservation decisions. This is shown by taking advantage of species' response (i.e., impact) models that have been developed for a well-studied bird species of conservation concern. Specifically, we examine the current and potential impact of climate on nest survival of the Lewis's Woodpecker (Melanerpes lewis) in two different habitats. To address climate uncertainty, climate scenarios are developed by manipulating historical weather observations to create ensembles (i.e., multiple sequences of daily weather) that reflect historical variability and potential climate change. These ensembles allow for a probabilistic evaluation of the risk posed to Lewis's Woodpecker nest survival and are used in two demographic analyses. First, the relative value of each habitat is compared in terms of nest survival, and second, the likelihood of exceeding a critical population threshold is examined. By embedding the analyses in a risk framework, we show how management choices can be made to be commensurate with a defined level of acceptable risk. The results can be used to inform habitat prioritization and are discussed in the context of an economic framework for evaluating trade-offs between management alternatives.

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Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
A risk-based approach to evaluating wildlife demographics for management in a changing climate: A case study of the Lewis's Woodpecker
Series title:
Environmental Management
DOI:
10.1007/s00267-012-9953-z
Volume
50
Issue:
6
Year Published:
2012
Language:
English
Publisher:
Springer
Publisher location:
New York, NY
Contributing office(s):
Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center
Description:
12 p.
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
Environmental Management
First page:
1152
Last page:
1163
Country:
United States
State:
Idaho
County:
Boise