Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change
Earth Interactions
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Abstract
Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change |
| Series title | Earth Interactions |
| DOI | 10.1175/2011EI378.1 |
| Volume | 15 |
| Issue | 27 |
| Year Published | 2011 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | American Meteorological Society |
| Publisher location | Boston, MA |
| Contributing office(s) | California Water Science Center |
| Description | 23 p. |
| Larger Work Type | Article |
| Larger Work Subtype | Journal Article |
| Larger Work Title | Earth Interactions |
| First page | 1 |
| Last page | 23 |
| Country | United States |
| State | California |
| Other Geospatial | Almanor Catchment;Feather River Basin |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |