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Repose time and cumulative moment magnitude: A new tool for forecasting eruptions?

Geophysical Research Letters

By:
, ,
DOI: 10.1029/2010GL044194

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Abstract

During earthquake swarms on active volcanoes, one of the primary challenges facing scientists is determining the likelihood of an eruption. Here we present the relation between repose time and the cumulative moment magnitude (CMM) as a tool to aid in differentiating between an eruption and a period of unrest. In several case studies, the CMM is lower at shorter repose times than it is at longer repose times. The relationship between repose time and CMM may be linear in log-log space, particularly at Mount St. Helens. We suggest that the volume and competence of the plug within the conduit drives the strength of the precursory CMM.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Repose time and cumulative moment magnitude: A new tool for forecasting eruptions?
Series title:
Geophysical Research Letters
DOI:
10.1029/2010GL044194
Volume
37
Year Published:
2010
Language:
English
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Publisher location:
Washington, D.C.
Contributing office(s):
Volcano Science Center
Description:
5 p.; L18301
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article