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Predicting the planform configuration of the braided Toklat River, AK with a suite of rule-based models

Journal of the American Water Resources Association

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DOI: 10.1111 ⁄ jawr.12029

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Abstract

An ensemble of rule-based models was constructed to assess possible future braided river planform configurations for the Toklat River in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska. This approach combined an analysis of large-scale influences on stability with several reduced-complexity models to produce the predictions at a practical level for managers concerned about the persistence of bank erosion while acknowledging the great uncertainty in any landscape prediction. First, a model of confluence angles reproduced observed angles of a major confluence, but showed limited susceptibility to a major rearrangement of the channel planform downstream. Second, a probabilistic map of channel locations was created with a two-parameter channel avulsion model. The predicted channel belt location was concentrated in the same area as the current channel belt. Finally, a suite of valley-scale channel and braid plain characteristics were extracted from a light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-derived surface. The characteristics demonstrated large-scale stabilizing topographic influences on channel planform. The combination of independent analyses increased confidence in the conclusion that the Toklat River braided planform is a dynamically stable system due to large and persistent valley-scale influences, and that a range of avulsive perturbations are likely to result in a relatively unchanged planform configuration in the short term.

Geospatial Extents

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Predicting the planform configuration of the braided Toklat River, AK with a suite of rule-based models
Series title:
Journal of the American Water Resources Association
DOI:
10.1111 ⁄ jawr.12029
Volume
49
Issue:
2
Year Published:
2013
Language:
English
Publisher:
Wiley
Contributing office(s):
Alaska Science Center Water
Description:
12 p.
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
Journal of the American Water Resources Association
First page:
390
Last page:
401
Number of Pages:
12
Country:
United States
State:
Alaska
Other Geospatial:
Toklat River