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An efficient deterministic-probabilistic approach to modeling regional groundwater flow: 1. Theory

Water Resources Research

By:
,
DOI: 10.1029/WR026i007p01559

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Abstract

An efficient probabilistic model is developed and cascaded with a deterministic model for predicting water table elevations in regional aquifers. The objective is to quantify model uncertainty where precise estimates of water table elevations may be required. The probabilistic model is based on the two-point probability method which only requires prior knowledge of uncertain variables mean and coefficient of variation. The two-point estimate method is theoretically developed and compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method. The results of comparisons using hypothetical determinisitic problems indicate that the two-point estimate method is only generally valid for linear problems where the coefficients of variation of uncertain parameters (for example, storage coefficient and hydraulic conductivity) is small. The two-point estimate method may be applied to slightly nonlinear problems with good results, provided coefficients of variation are small. In such cases, the two-point estimate method is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo method provided the number of uncertain variables is less than eight.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
An efficient deterministic-probabilistic approach to modeling regional groundwater flow: 1. Theory
Series title:
Water Resources Research
DOI:
10.1029/WR026i007p01559
Volume
26
Issue:
7
Year Published:
1990
Language:
English
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Publisher location:
Washington, D.C.
Contributing office(s):
Water Resources Program
Description:
9 p.
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
First page:
1559
Last page:
1567