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Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments

International Journal of Wildland Fire

By:
, , , , , , , and
DOI: 10.1071/WF11079

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Abstract

Human land use practices, altered climates, and shifting forest and fire management policies have increased the frequency of large wildfires several-fold. Mitigation of potential fire behaviour and fire severity have increasingly been attempted through pre-fire alteration of wildland fuels using mechanical treatments and prescribed fires. Despite annual treatment of more than a million hectares of land, quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of existing fuel treatments at reducing the size of actual wildfires or how they might alter the risk of burning across landscapes are currently lacking. Here, we present a method for estimating spatial probabilities of burning as a function of extant fuels treatments for any wildland fire-affected landscape. We examined the landscape effects of more than 72 000 ha of wildland fuel treatments involved in 14 large wildfires that burned 314 000 ha of forests in nine US states between 2002 and 2010. Fuels treatments altered the probability of fire occurrence both positively and negatively across landscapes, effectively redistributing fire risk by changing surface fire spread rates and reducing the likelihood of crowning behaviour. Trade offs are created between formation of large areas with low probabilities of increased burning and smaller, well-defined regions with reduced fire risk.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments
Series title:
International Journal of Wildland Fire
DOI:
10.1071/WF11079
Volume
21
Issue:
4
Year Published:
2012
Language:
English
Publisher:
CSIRO Publishing
Contributing office(s):
Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center
Description:
11 p.
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
International Journal of Wildland Fire
First page:
357
Last page:
367