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Predictive models for Escherichia coli concentrations at inland lake beaches and relationship of model variables to pathogen detection

Applied and Environmental Microbiology

By:
, , , , , ,
DOI: 10.1128/AEM.02995-12

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Abstract

Predictive models, based on environmental and water quality variables, have been used to improve the timeliness and accuracy of recreational water quality assessments, but their effectiveness has not been studied in inland waters. Sampling at eight inland recreational lakes in Ohio was done in order to investigate using predictive models for Escherichia coli and to understand the links between E. coli concentrations, predictive variables, and pathogens. Based upon results from 21 beach sites, models were developed for 13 sites, and the most predictive variables were rainfall, wind direction and speed, turbidity, and water temperature. Models were not developed at sites where the E. coli standard was seldom exceeded. Models were validated at nine sites during an independent year. At three sites, the model resulted in increased correct responses, sensitivities, and specificities compared to use of the previous day's E. coli concentration (the current method). Drought conditions during the validation year precluded being able to adequately assess model performance at most of the other sites. Cryptosporidium, adenovirus, eaeA (E. coli), ipaH (Shigella), and spvC (Salmonella) were found in at least 20% of samples collected for pathogens at five sites. The presence or absence of the three bacterial genes was related to some of the model variables but was not consistently related to E. coli concentrations. Predictive models were not effective at all inland lake sites; however, their use at two lakes with high swimmer densities will provide better estimates of public health risk than current methods and will be a valuable resource for beach managers and the public.

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Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Predictive models for Escherichia coli concentrations at inland lake beaches and relationship of model variables to pathogen detection
Series title:
Applied and Environmental Microbiology
DOI:
10.1128/AEM.02995-12
Volume
79
Issue:
5
Year Published:
2013
Language:
English
Publisher:
American Society for Microbiology
Publisher location:
Washington, D.C.
Contributing office(s):
Ohio Water Science Center
Description:
13 p.
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
Applied and Environmental Microbiology
First page:
1676
Last page:
1688
Country:
United States
State:
Ohio